An Authoritarian Swing in Asia?

With countries such as The Philippines and Indonesia electing right wing authoritarian “Strong” leaders, are we seeing a new authoritarian shift in Asia and if so, should we be worrying?

After a post-WW2 shift where the growing threat of communism was sweeping these nations, we are starting to see a shift to the right in Asian nations, whether than be economic right or authoritarian (Government controlling people) right wing politics.

These 2 leaders so far, that being Widodo of Indonesia, and Duterte of the Philippines have been putting forward anti-drug campaigns. Both of these countries are experiencing a spike in executions, that being the opposite trend of what the rest of the world is heading.

What is failing at the moment, is moderate leftist policies, which is doing a great job in other countries. Duterte is running a frightening campaign in The Philippines, making an example of drug dealers by executing them on the street, taping their heads and putting cardboard signs near them admitting their guilt (There are pictures if you’re interested, but I’m not putting any here) . Indonesia’s Widodo seems to be trying to annoy regional allies, because he seems to be executing a LOT of foreigners, compared to his population. What is remained to be seen yet is the effectiveness of these Authoritarian policies. My best guess is that it will scare the population, rather than make any decent progress. Having a scared population means the right wing will typically win (From past examples). So we might be heading into a dangerous authoritarian spiral in these 2 countries. There is going to be a point where the international community just doesn’t accept these horrors, and public fear mongering done by these 2 presidents. I’m just hoping that this idea doesn’t spread. The answer to the “Should we be worrying?” question is Yes. Authoritarianism is at the heart of some of the most violent dictatorships experienced in human history and its roots can be drawn back to communism, which might be where this whole government style is arising from in the region. Moderation is needed everything, and in essence this is what we are teaching in schools, whether we know it or not. How about we apply it to our political views and decisions as well? It will make the world a safer place.

The Trouble with the CAR

Nope. Not cars as in automotive vehicles, CAR as in the Central African Republic. The CAR is a great example of sectarian violence at its worse. While South Sudan is beginning to get some attention it is probably the right time to talk about a country that has been in a civil war since roughly South Sudan’s independence.

This civil war can be most simply described as having similar terms to the Sudanese Civil war and this time the side that lost fought back. In Central Africa, the root of most of the civil unrest can be traced back to the Muslim-Christian divide within these nations. Generally speaking, the Northern African nations are Muslim-majority nations and the south are Christian-majority, the central African nations seem to get ‘the best (worst) of both worlds’ in the worst meaning possible.

If you’d like a massive crazy fest in graphic form here it is:

A Wikipedia Table.

 

Yep. Somehow even Wikipedia complicates it beyond belief with a bunch of acronyms and symbols (Yes, this is reliable, I checked other sources too). So basically the people on the left are the Seleka (a Muslim alliance) and on the right we have the Anti-Balaka (a Christian alliance) and in the middle we have external forces who are attempting to stabilise the country. So, to understand this we need to take a short CAR history lesson:

Back in…

• 1960: CAR becomes independent after a larger nation’s president (Which the CAR used to be part of) died a year after the independence of the larger nation.
• 1962: CAR becomes a one party state (aka the system China and North Korea use right now)
• 1972: President calls himself “President for life”.
• 1976: The president becomes an emperor and calls the country the Central African Empire.
• 1979: Coup happens with the help of the French.
• 1991: Political parties make their return.
• 1996: Soldiers mutiny because of lack of pay.
• 1999: We finally have a president again!
• 2001: Another coup attempt.
• 2002: Another coup attempt backed by the Libyans.

and here comes the more crazier bit (Somehow)

• 2005: Lawlessness makes its return to north western CAR
• October 2006: Bozize (A christian president) has to cut short a holiday because the rebels are taking over
• May 2007: We have ourselves a peace agreement.
• February 2008: We have the Ugandan LRA coming to town (christian extremist group)
• January 2009: Unity Government (We know how well those go)
• February 2009: The LRA are back again…
• September 2009: The Ugandan army
• 2010: We have another election.
• 2011: Christian president continues leadership
• 2012: Muslim alliance back. Takes over country.
• 2013: Muslim alliance components can’t agree on the same thing
• 2014: UN decides to drop in.
• 2015: UN accuses christian extremists of ethinic cleansing.
• 2015: The pope’s here?
• 2016: More elections!!!

So, we’re back where we started again. A country plagued by sectarian violence where democracy nor a unity government is going to work! What shall we do? How about we do what stopped the Sudanese Civil War. Split the country. But this time, we need to be shoulder to shoulder with these countries so they can develop and create the positive change that Central Africa as a whole needs.

 

Turkey’s cornered on all sides.

The use of an idiom might lessen the sound of the situation at first glance, but I’ve found this issue so important I’m going to write about Turkey again, within the space of a few articles. So let’s get to it.

The recent military (despite what the government is saying, this IS the military, not some minority terrorist group) coup is actually an attempted stabilisation of the government, which in turkey is one of their major duties. They are meant to keep the government secular and moderate. The dire situation that turkey is in has been brought into the spotlight because of this event.

However, there has been an escalation in regional politics, leading to a tense political environment within the nation itself.. Thus the political coup could come from this environment, as well as the attempted stability measures done by the army.

From a geographical standpoint, let’s see what Turkey is up against.

From the north:

I’d rather not talk about this in great detail, so if you’re interested head over to my first Turk article ‘What on earth is turkey doing”.

Basically, they’re having an airspace sovereignty dispute type issue with Russia that blew out of control and they are just starting to heal those scars.

From the east:⁃Syria is falling apart

⁃Syria is falling apart

⁃Turkish ‘enemies’ fighting ISIL in Syria and Iraq, gaining US support.

⁃Jordan taking in tonnes of migrants, possible political instability about to happen

⁃ISIL can flow pretty easily over their border with Syria.

From the west:

⁃Turkey wants to join the EU, EU  cautious about giving membership

⁃EU has basically dumped most migrants back to Turkey to stop a continuing media crisis.

⁃After several terror attacks within the EU, they are certain to start pointing fingers at people (even if they don’t publicly say it, and one of the first accusations will be to turkey).

What I am trying to advocate here, is political upheaval in Turkey isn’t a surprise. The government has been becoming more and more extreme in their policies, and the president is trying to gain more power to run the country (as the president was a ceremonial role before Erdogan’s rise). Along with this, Turkey seems to be trying to distance themselves from the issues that could attack their very core and have just begun to do so. If Turkey doesn’t take the helm for its region and become a regional power we are going to see a lot more terrible things happen in Turkey. Just like what we have been seeing in neighbouring nations. Turkey is taking more of a risk staying out of the region’s affairs than they would be staying in. Turkey needs to understand they are NOT Europe,  NOT Asia, they are part of the Middle East, and if they are so embarrassed by it simply… do something to fix it! Don’t sit there and complain, do some action and start helping out a bit more.

Let’s make an example of Uganda.

Uganda, a fiercely conservative Christian majority nation in Central Eastern Africa is doing something that no one else is doing and it is quite a good idea. Ugandan forces, with the approval of the South Sudanese President are now able to cross their border and bring their citizens home (yes, i know all countries do this but that isn’t all of the idea at hand). They have also extended their humanitarian hand to people of any nationality to safely leave the country.

The convoy resembles more of a micro-invasion force (a bit like the Swiss Air Force crossing into another country to get water from its lake). They have taken 30 lorry trucks, along with vehicles mounted with machine guns. This does sound a bit crazy, but the security situation in this country is so bad it requires this level of security.

If this idea is able to be implemented on a larger scale, we might be able to save a lot more lives. I’m not talking about Syria here although it might work there. I’m talking about countries which have civil conflicts that could become the next Syria. Here are some great examples: Eritrea, Libya, C.A.R and Yemen. Uganda is showing that it is becoming a mature regional power and they have impressed and surprised me as this doesn’t seem to be a typical Ugandan thing to do.

Regional powers are the key to the reduction of risk that comes out of civil wars. With the exception of Jordan, Turkey and Israel, regional powers who are enabled and able to do this sort of work should be more of this sort of operation. Also, by the way… Welcome to 2016! It’s no longer The West’s responsibility to undertake these actions, and it shouldn’t have ever been. If alike countries help each other, it looks a lot less like an invasion.

So I am thanking Uganda for its actions here, and raise the challenge to regional /emerging powers near civil conflict zones to follow Uganda’s lead on this one. They have a commendable policy/operation here and it should be replicated. It’s not large, It’s not flashy, but it does the trick and that’s all that matters.

UPDATE: So far 26k people have fled to Uganda.

 

The State of the Union (not the US one)

Scotland needs another referendum.

Scotland needs the EU, and if they want it they’ll have to leave the United Kingdom behind. There’s absolutely no question about it, and this has been portrayed in the stark contrast of Scottish votes against the overall British ones.

Scotland voted 68% to remain in the EU and the highest minister that represents Scotland has directly pointed to, and welcomes another independence referendum (http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-36621030). Britain overall voted 52% to leave.

It is not the EU that is decaying and dying, they are just transitioning and progressing like all healthy governments do. On the other hand, the United Kingdom is what a decaying and dying union looks like. These regions have differing ideologies that are moving further away from each other, whereas the EU is coming together in ideas and values. Overall, without progress, unions die and this is why it’s time for Scotland to act in its interests and leave the conservative England-centric kingdom we have all come to know the UK as.

Scotland needs the EU, and the ideology of Scotland isn’t far off the fundamental ideas of the EU, whereas English ideology is worlds away from Scottish ideology.

Scots deserve the chance to vote in another referendum, and just because they had one a little while ago doesn’t mean they should be denied one now. An alarming sign of this is when you have the leader of the Conservative party saying that the UK needs to remain in the EU.

The playing field has changed in the unions, both of them as a matter of fact, and it is time for Scotland to break away, for their own good. Also about Brexit, I believe the UK should have left, but the timing was off this time round.

Nicola Sturgeon, the first minister has indicated to a possible second referendum, and the SNP (Scottish National Party) who won a majority in the latest election and the party in its manifesto has something to this effect: If Scotland’s position in the EU is compromised, they will hold a referendum (known as indyref2) . She has also indicated that the result is “democratically unacceptable” for her country, and she has promised to work in Scotland’s best interests.

These interests are very clear. I’d predict in a year or two we will see an independent Scotland. So, Ms Sturgeon, let us get this show on the road and I can’t wait to see the country on the other side.

Indonesia and Australia

These two countries have practically shared a history together and the story goes right back to the time where Makassan traders and Northern Territory Aboriginals traded precious goods, and remained on relatively good terms, whilst co-existing.

In the modern day, I would say that this bond is weakened but these two countries need each other, and both of them know it. Australia needs Indonesia because it needs a neighbour that it can sell to whereas Indonesia economically relies on Australia, and this is just from an economic perspective. Both countries have on multiple cases done something that could have triggered a war. However, due to this mutual need between the two nations, they haven’t gone to war.

Australia and Indonesia couldn’t be more different yet so similar for two regional powers. Indonesia is a majority Islam country, with a focus on keeping control of a lot of people whilst keeping them unified under one banner. Although Australia also shares this problem, it’s not as apparent. Australia has helped former Indonesian islands and regions become independent, much to Indonesia’s outrage (East Timor and Papua New Guinea are two great examples of this). Indonesia has also been put under the spotlight by its southern neighbour as having a leadership that doesn’t work very well. However if Australia is looking to have a bright future in the ASEAN region (Southeast Asia) it will need Indonesia. These two countries need to become as close as the Australia-New Zealand bond. Indonesia can open Australia to Asia even more, whereas Australia can introduce Indonesia as an emerging world power, one that it could be. Both countries have ideas and concepts to learn off each other, and its time for them to get educated. This relation must no longer be a hesitant one, but a mutual agreement on a collective future and vision. The 2 prime ministers of these countries need to sit down and have some serious talks about the region, because if these 2 countries can have mutual ideas, anything is possible in the Southeast Asia.

-Joseph Wilson 19/6/16

 

What on Earth is Turkey Doing?

So far this year Turkey has failed to not offend one superpower. This actually seems to be a record for an emerging islamic superpower. Turkey has shot down a Russian aircraft, calling US allies in syria and iraq “terrorists” and is cracking down on press freedom (Which isn’t going down very well with the European Union).

It interests me that China is the only country that has not had a direct problem with the way Turkey is doing things, but lets not go into more conspiracy theories.

Turkish involvement in Syria

This is the big issue with Turkey. Russia and the United States right now both agree on one thing: ISIL has to go. Turkey, on the other hand, doesn’t mind them too much it seems. A quote to support this:

“Turkey shamelessly and openly backs IS and al-Qaeda terrorists against Kurdish freedom fighters,” Sadi Pria, a top Iraqi Kurdish official in Irbil, has said.

Although there is obvious bias to this, Mr Pria might be on the right track. We could be seeing another Pakistan-Afghan Taliban thing going on.

Everything I’ve just said in the past few lines is not the reason why the US and Russia are mad at Turkey.

So in Syria… who does Turkey support?

Answer is, we don’t actually know. Other than wanting to remove Kurdish “Terrorists”, Turkey does not have much of an agenda in this conflict, other than, of course protecting its sovereignty. This brings me to Russia.

This madness festival all started back in 2015, the 24th of November to be exact. A russian plane was flying over Turkish airspace, and an F16 decided to shoot it down.

This is what both Turkey and Russia have said about it, in graphic form:

Ok, so Russia is saying that it did not enter turkish airspace. Let’s put that aside. Turkey did warn them 10 times (Source:BBC). But come on, if you look at the dip in turkish border there,  they might have been taking a short cut back to their airbase. It’s simple. The turks had no proof that these planes were heading deeper into Turkish soil. If it was, by all means, i have no position to rant here.

Now, lets go to the US. One of the most effective forces against extremists in the area has been the YPG (a kurdish armed force). The YPG are allied to the PKK, a kurdish group seeking autonomy. Turkey calls them terrorists, so of course, by direct linkage, the YPG have to be terrorists too!! right? Wrong. There’s no evidence to state that the YPG have a clear terrorist agenda against Turkey. Of course they would support an independent kurdish state which includes sovereign turk land. This is really annoying the USA. Honestly, the US have every right to be annoyed. Turkey have just stuffed up America’s grand plan. But this makes it even better:

“ISIS and PKK ‘united’ in their terrorism against Turkey, Erdogan’s spokesman claims”.

So now we are saying the PKK and ISIS are collaborating although the PKK have linkage to another group which is fighting ISIS. Well thats enough confusion for me.

So what do you think Turkey is actually up to?

 

Why Bernie Sanders will win in California.

In the USA presidential race, it almost seems like Americans will be voting for the least worst candidate that has a chance of actually winning. This person, I believe is Bernie Sanders. Although he wants to make the United States the next Scandinavian peace lover (Which does seem a bit far out of reach) but these leftist policies would create a far more sustainable america that would be fit for the future, unlike Donald Trump, who follows more right wing/conservative policies. If anything is to be said about recent US presidential history, it is the right wing conservatives who have created the most destruction in the country.

Now, Bernie Sanders has one more chance to sway those super delegates (who basically have all followed Clinton, yes we can have conspiracy theories there) and this could be the biggest opportunity for the Vermont senator. With around 500 standard democratic delegates, this state could turn the tide of the whole race.

California has a young and emerging population, which is striving to innovate and challenge the norms of the country. In the past states, this demographic has seemed to support Bernie Sanders over the other delegates. Even a Russian TV network are getting behind Sanders (not joking look it up).  If the delegates follow the hearts and minds of the population they are meant to represent, we should see Sanders win at the primary.

However, we will only know on the 7th of June.

 

-Joseph Wilson (29 May 2016)